A nationwide forensic case-series of femicides in Italy – Part 2: Clues to its epidemiology, prediction and prevention

Femicides are grievous, but little is known about risk factors and preventive measures. We present the results of a study conducted across 27 Italian Forensic Institutes. We analyzed 1,238 cases of female homicide and, adopting the definition of femicide as the murder due to the failure to recognize women's right to self-determination, we identified 410 cases as femicides and 395 as non-femicides Current partners were identified as aggressors in a much larger proportion of femicide cases (241 femicides vs. 145 non-femicides; odds ratio (OR) of femicide 2.46, 95 % CI 1.85–3.27), such association being more pronounced for ex-partners (102 vs. 11; OR 11.56, 95 % CI 6.10–21.92). Sharp weapons showed a higher frequency in femicides (168 vs. 140; OR 1.26, 95 % CI 0.95–1.68). Femicides were more often associated with bodies found in vehicles (31 vs. 9; OR 3.50, 95 % CI 1.64–7.45) and outdoor (68 vs. 43; OR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.08–2.45). There was an indication of femicides being more frequently associated with overkilling (87/323 vs. 71/324; OR 1.24, 95 % CI 0.88–1.76) and even more with lesions located in erogenous zones (94/316 vs. 70/325; OR 1.38, 95 % CI: 0.97–1.95). However, the strongest (though statistically imprecise) association emerged for overkilling in erogenous zones (12/398 vs. 6/389; OR 1.95, 95 % CI: 0.72–5.25). The number of lesions showed a nonlinear association with femicide likelihood. These findings offer forensic indicators that could contribute in predicting and potentially prevent femicide occurrence in a Western population such as the Italian one.