Predictors of Recurrence After Surgery in Patients with Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background: Surgery represents the gold standard treatment for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, up to 30% of those may experience recurrence. This study aims to identify prognostic factors for both early and late recurrence in this subset. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with stage IA-B NSCLC undergoing lung resection from 2013 to 2021 in four major lung cancer centers. Inclusion criteria were intentionally curative resections via either open or mini-invasive approaches plus lymph node dissection and a minimum follow-up of 36 months. Analyzed prognosticators included age, gender, smoking status, comorbidities, radiological appearance, surgical approach, intraoperative complications, pT stage and histologic subtypes. The overall and disease-free survivals and uni- and multivariable Cox regression for recurrence prediction were analyzed. Results: We collected data from 1132 consecutive patients (mean age 68.5 ± 8.8 years, 55.5% males and 20.1% smokers). After a mean follow-up of 57 ± 37 months, 908 (80.2%), patients were still disease-free, while the remaining 224 (19.8%) presented local (n = 86) or distant (n = 138) recurrences; 72 (32.1%) patients experienced reoccurrence within 12 months. The disease-free survival rate was significantly higher in the pT1a stage and in lepidic adenocarcinoma. The multivariable analysis and Cox regression showed that pT>1a (p = 0.001) and non-lepidic subtypes of adenocarcinoma (p < 0.001) were the best predictors of recurrence. Conclusions: Approximately one fifth of patients undergoing radical surgery for stage I NSCLC experienced recurrence within five years. Significant predictors of recurrence were a pT status greater than 1a and non-lepidic subtypes of adenocarcinoma.