La Brexit, l’Europa e il dittatore benevolo

The British referendum of June 23, 2016, was a crucial step in the European integration process. The possible economic impacts of the exit of Britain from the EU (‘Brexit’) are very uncertain: current estimates predict a fall of the UK GDP ranging between -0.6% to -14% over 15 years. Only few scholars argued that the exit from the EU will bring beneficial effects to UK economy. Rather than economic, the real consequences of the referendum are, however, political. The risk is that also in other countries, euro-sceptical parties and movements, will ask for a popular vote on the EU membership or on monetary union. Several indicators suggest a crisis of legitimacy of the EU. The aftermath of the austerity policies and the failures of the EU management of the immigration emergency, have strengthened the sentiments of disaffection and scepticisms of European citizens. The legitimacy crisis has indeed deeper roots. By joining the EU, national states lost part of their sovereignty, especially in macroeconomic policy. By contrast, the EU has not widened the democratic participation, while the decisions on macroeconomic policies are delegated to non-elective institutions, the Commission and the ECB, that behave as the ‘guardians of the Treaties’. These institutions implement policies following codified rules. Theoretically, tight codified rules are time-consistent and optimal, while discretionary policies are time-inconsistent and, hence, fail to produce long run goals. As pointed out by J.P. Fitoussi (2003), the European government of the rule acts as the ‘benevolent dictator’ hypothesised by economists: a government that maximizes its social utility function sheltered from democratic pressures.