Responses of Italian public hospitals to COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of supply and demand of hospital ICU beds

This study aims to analyze the pressure on Italian public hospitals from the additional demand created by COVID-19. Starting from the analysis of regulatory interventions ordered by the central government in response to the emergency, this paper analyzes daily the trend of hospital beds and admissions in intensive care units from March to November 2020. The results revealed a critical situation in the system for meeting demand, with numerous regions operating beyond their capacity, especially in the first wave of the pandemic. The study presents two relevant messages. First, it is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the Italian population allowing more time for the reorganization of the supply and relieve the pressure on the health system: a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic would cause the collapse of the national health system. Another suggestion regards the regionalized organization of health services: the design may be adequate in situations of routine demand but faces important challenges during pandemics.