Predictors of mortality in nursing-home residents with pneumonia: a multicentre study

Objectives To evaluate predictors of mortality in patients residing in nursing-homes (NHs) or long-term care facilities (LTCFs) with diagnosis of NH-acquired pneumonia (NHAP). Methods We conducted an observational, prospective study (December 2013-December 2015) of patients residing in nine NHs/LTCFs of Central and Northern Italy with diagnosis of NHAP. Data on demographics, comorbidities, microbiology, and therapies were entered into an electronic database. To identify risk factors associated with 30-day mortality, we performed univariable and multivariable analyses, and predictors were internally validated using a bootstrap resampling procedure. We derived a prediction rule using the coefficients obtained from the multivariable logistic regression. The model obtained was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results Overall, 446 patients with NHAP were included in the final cohort. The median age was 80 (IQR 75–87) years. A definite aetiology was obtained in 120 (26.9%) patients; of these, 66 (55%) had a culture positive for a multidrug-resistant pathogen. The 30-day mortality was 28.7%. On multivariate analysis, malnutrition (OR 7.8; 95% CI 3–20.2, 2 points), bilateral pneumonia (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.4–9.8, 1 point), acute mental status deterioration (OR 6.2; 95% CI 2.2–17.6, 2 points), hypotension (OR 7.7; 95% CI 2.3–24.9, 2 points), and PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤250 (OR 7.4; 95% CI 2.2–24.2, 2 points) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. The derived prediction rule showed an AUROC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87, p <0.001). Conclusions NH residents with pneumonia have specific risk factors associated with 30-day mortality. Malnutrition and acute mental change appear as major determinants of death in this population.